Objective

To evaluate whether routinely performed ECGs in older people from the general population have added value for cardiovascular risk management beyond the information that is already available from their medical records.

Design

Observational, prospective cohort study.

Setting

General population.

Subjects

A total of 566 participants aged 85 years (377 women, 189 men).

Methods

Lifelong history of cardiovascular disease was assessed through medical records obtained from general practitioners. Baseline ECGs were evaluated for prior myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation. During a 5-year follow-up period, complete cardiovascular mortality and morbidity data were gathered.

Results

During 5 years of follow-up, 262/566 (46%) participants died, of whom 102/262 (39%) died from cardiovascular disease. Participants with a history of cardiovascular disease at age 85 years (284/566, 50%) had an increased cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.8-4.1) and morbidity (HR (myocardial infarction) 2.1, 95% CI 1.3-3.6; HR (stroke) 2.7, 95% CI 1.6-4.9) compared with those without such a history. Participants with major ECG abnormalities (102/566, 18%) had an increased cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.8), but no increase of cardiovascular morbidity compared with those without major ECG abnormalities. In both participants with and without a history of cardiovascular disease, the presence of major ECG abnormalities was not associated with increased cardiovascular mortality or morbidity.

Conclusions

In older people from the general population, a history of cardiovascular disease is a strong predictor of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Although abnormal findings on routine ECGs predict cardiovascular mortality, they do not provide additional prognostic information beyond the information available from medical records. Therefore, when accurate medical records are available, programmatic ECG recording is not effective in older people.